Hospital trajectories and early predictors of clinical outcomes differ between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: A comparison of pneumonias due to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, in terms of clinical course and predictors of outcomes, might inform prognosis and resource management. We aimed to compare clinical course and outcome predictors in SARS-CoV-2 and influenza pneumonia using multi-state modelling and supervised machine learning on clinical data among hospitalised patients. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (March-December 2020) or influenza (Jan 2015-March 2020) pneumonia had the composite of hospital mortality and hospice discharge as the primary outcome. Multi-state models compared differences in oxygenation/ventilatory utilisation between pneumonias longitudinally throughout hospitalisation. Differences in predictors of outcome were modelled using supervised machine learning classifiers. FINDINGS: Among 2,529 hospitalisations with SARS-CoV-2 and 2,256 with influenza pneumonia, the primary outcome occurred in 21% and 9%, respectively. Multi-state models differentiated oxygen requirement progression between viruses, with SARS-CoV-2 manifesting rapidly-escalating early hypoxemia. Highly contributory classifier variables for the primary outcome differed substantially between viruses. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 and influenza pneumonia differ in presentation, hospital course, and outcome predictors. These pathogen-specific differential responses in viral pneumonias suggest distinct management approaches should be investigated. FUNDING: This project was supported by NIH/NCATS UL1 TR002345, NIH/NCATS KL2 TR002346 (PGL), the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation grant 2015215 (PGL), NIH/NHLBI R35 HL140026 (CSC), and a Big Ideas Award from the BJC HealthCare and Washington University School of Medicine Healthcare Innovation Lab and NIH/NIGMS R35 GM142992 (PS).

Longitudinal respiratory subphenotypes in patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome: results from three observational cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have been postulated to present with distinct respiratory subphenotypes. However, most phenotyping schema have been limited by sample size, disregard for temporal dynamics, and insufficient validation. We aimed to identify respiratory subphenotypes of COVID-19-related ARDS using unbiased data-driven approaches. METHODS: PRoVENT-COVID was an investigator-initiated, national, multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study at 22 intensive care units (ICUs) in the Netherlands. Consecutive patients who had received invasive mechanical ventilation for COVID-19 (aged 18 years or older) served as the derivation cohort, and similar patients from two ICUs in the USA served as the replication cohorts. COVID-19 was confirmed by positive RT-PCR. We used latent class analysis to identify subphenotypes using clinically available respiratory data cross-sectionally at baseline, and longitudinally using 8-hourly data from the first 4 days of invasive ventilation. We used group-based trajectory modelling to evaluate trajectories of individual variables and to facilitate potential clinical translation. The PRoVENT-COVID study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04346342. FINDINGS: Between March 1, 2020, and May 15, 2020, 1007 patients were admitted to participating ICUs in the Netherlands, and included in the derivation cohort. Data for 288 patients were included in replication cohort 1 and 326 in replication cohort 2. Cross-sectional latent class analysis did not identify any underlying subphenotypes. Longitudinal latent class analysis identified two distinct subphenotypes. Subphenotype 2 was characterised by higher mechanical power, minute ventilation, and ventilatory ratio over the first 4 days of invasive mechanical ventilation than subphenotype 1, but PaO2/FiO2, pH, and compliance of the respiratory system did not differ between the two subphenotypes. 185 (28%) of 671 patients with subphenotype 1 and 109 (32%) of 336 patients with subphenotype 2 had died at day 28 (p=0·10). However, patients with subphenotype 2 had fewer ventilator-free days at day 28 (median 0, IQR 0-15 vs 5, 0-17; p=0·016) and more frequent venous thrombotic events (109 [32%] of 336 patients vs 176 [26%] of 671 patients; p=0·048) compared with subphenotype 1. Group-based trajectory modelling revealed trajectories of ventilatory ratio and mechanical power with similar dynamics to those observed in latent class analysis-derived trajectory subphenotypes. The two trajectories were: a stable value for ventilatory ratio or mechanical power over the first 4 days of invasive mechanical ventilation (trajectory A) or an upward trajectory (trajectory B). However, upward trajectories were better independent prognosticators for 28-day mortality (OR 1·64, 95% CI 1·17-2·29 for ventilatory ratio; 1·82, 1·24-2·66 for mechanical power). The association between upward ventilatory ratio trajectories (trajectory B) and 28-day mortality was confirmed in the replication cohorts (OR 4·65, 95% CI 1·87-11·6 for ventilatory ratio in replication cohort 1; 1·89, 1·05-3·37 for ventilatory ratio in replication cohort 2). INTERPRETATION: At baseline, COVID-19-related ARDS has no consistent respiratory subphenotype. Patients diverged from a fairly homogenous to a more heterogeneous population, with trajectories of ventilatory ratio and mechanical power being the most discriminatory. Modelling these parameters alone provided prognostic value for duration of mechanical ventilation and mortality. FUNDING: Amsterdam UMC.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Temperature Trajectories Correlate With Hyperinflammatory and Hypercoagulable Subphenotypes.

OBJECTIVES: Body temperature trajectories of infected patients are associated with specific immune profiles and survival. We determined the association between temperature trajectories and distinct manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Four hospitals within an academic healthcare system from March 2020 to February 2021. PATIENTS: All adult patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019. INTERVENTIONS: Using a validated group-based trajectory model, we classified patients into four previously defined temperature trajectory subphenotypes using oral temperature measurements from the first 72 hours of hospitalization. Clinical characteristics, biomarkers, and outcomes were compared between subphenotypes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The 5,903 hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients were classified into four subphenotypes: hyperthermic slow resolvers (n = 1,452, 25%), hyperthermic fast resolvers (1,469, 25%), normothermics (2,126, 36%), and hypothermics (856, 15%). Hypothermics had abnormal coagulation markers, with the highest d-dimer and fibrin monomers (p < 0.001) and the highest prevalence of cerebrovascular accidents (10%, p = 0.001). The prevalence of venous thromboembolism was significantly different between subphenotypes (p = 0.005), with the highest rate in hypothermics (8.5%) and lowest in hyperthermic slow resolvers (5.1%). Hyperthermic slow resolvers had abnormal inflammatory markers, with the highest C-reactive protein, ferritin, and interleukin-6 (p < 0.001). Hyperthermic slow resolvers had increased odds of mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and 30-day inpatient mortality (odds ratio, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.13-2.19) compared with hyperthermic fast resolvers. Over the course of the pandemic, we observed a drastic decrease in the prevalence of hyperthermic slow resolvers, from representing 53% of admissions in March 2020 to less than 15% by 2021. We found that dexamethasone use was associated with significant reduction in probability of hyperthermic slow resolvers membership (27% reduction; 95% CI, 23-31%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Hypothermics had abnormal coagulation markers, suggesting a hypercoagulable subphenotype. Hyperthermic slow resolvers had elevated inflammatory markers and the highest odds of mortality, suggesting a hyperinflammatory subphenotype. Future work should investigate whether temperature subphenotypes benefit from targeted antithrombotic and anti-inflammatory strategies.